Austrian Times RSS FeedsLike the Austrian Times Facebook page!Follow us on Twitter!


Events for October
M T W T F S S
29 30 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31 1 2
Add your event FREE

Today

Videos


BurgKino

Pub Quiz everyTuesday at Johnny's Pub

Popular in Austria


Cosmo&Nanu
Austrian Times Blog

no picture available

Clem Chambers : The “great recession

The "great recession" is dead and the "great reflation" is about to begin, writes Clem Chambers, Amazon best-selling author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners and CEO of world leading investment site, www.advfn.com.

Visit www.clemchambers.com. Follow: @ClemChambers

In January, I wrote an article declaring the euro crisis dead.  Austrian readers might now be thinking I was way too early on that one.

In my defence, whilst there were wobbles in Italy and Spain in 2012, the euro didn’t disintegrate. It doesn't look likely to disintegrate anymore. So the storm didn’t actually hit the shore. In fact, if you acknowledge that the "euro crisis" is not actually the same thing as the "euro problem" - that the whole situation has gone from acute to chronic, (or short-term to long-term) -  then the euro crisis was dead after all. And it still is.

For this coming year then, my speculation is, "the great depression is dead".

Yes, we may fall off fiscal cliffs, and yes we will have currency crises. Yes, interest rate moves and QEs will shake and stir, but nonetheless, like the Mayan calendar, the bear market started by the credit crunch has run its course. The world will go on.
Go on, and go up!

From my point of view, this is all an investor needs to know. Any idiot can make a profit investing in a bull market. And we are in the overture of a bull market. It could run and run the whole of this decade.

Imagine that!

Not many people in 2000 believed we were in for a 12 year bear market, so it is not a wholly ridiculous prediction to make. Imagine a huge and long bull run. Double or triple the indices. Can you hold that idea in your mind without thinking "yeah, right"?

Why and how a huge equities rally is possible?

The 'why' of it can be looked at from many angles. You could suggest a 12 year bear market has to come to an end sometime, for instance. However, I think it is all about the huge reflation of the US and Europe which has at last begun to produce the desired recovery. Couple this with China’s recovery, which has kicked off now it has worked through its soft/hard landing to avoid a boom and crash in property, similar to the one that felled the West. Then add to that the news that Japan is going for a dash for growth. You have an alignment of giant bullish factors.

An inflationary Japan will set a series of inflationary dominos falling and there will be growth. Not just old school growth but a sudden explosion of it.

Things could go wrong and we could get massive inflation, yet things could go right and we could get huge growth with mild, technology-dampened inflation and global growth.
The world’s demographics can easily deliver a huge decade-long boom. Politicians could, of course, utterly screw it all up and deliver the world into an inflationary asset bubble mirror image of that.

In any event there's going to be a step-change in activity from defensive, deflationary economics to frothy, reflationary activity.

The beginning of the next financial era is near. I reckon it will be next year. This means it will more likely occur in 2014, as I’m often early to the party.
The active investor couldn’t ask for more. 'The trend is your friend especially if you can catch it early. What's more, this trend is up.

The way to go, is to ride the trend. Take on risk. Short money and go long on hard assets.
What could be easier?

Let the good times roll.

Austrian Times


Are you on Facebook? Like the Austrian Times on Facebook and win great prizes!


Cosmo and Nanu
ORF Watch

Tag cloud:
bull  disintegrate  course  Japan  reflation  nbsp  growth  dead  investor  asset  crisis  trend  euro  inflationary  Clem  thinking  boom  recovery  didn  rsquo

Latest News

 

Rare Bald Ibis Makes Microlight Flight To Italy
The project to introduce an extinct bird back to Europe is hailing success after successfully negotiating a new route over the Alps and training 14 Northern Bald Ibises how to fly south to winter feeding grounds in southern Tuscany.

Pat On The Back From Manure Explosive
A traffic cop in Austria got more than he bargained for after a booby trap covered him head-to-toe in manure as he was trying to catch people speeding.

Viennese Jihad Girl May Have Been Killed
Austrian police say that one of the two attractive young teenage girls who fled the country to go to Syria to fight on the side of Islamic rebels may have been killed.

Perversion of a Medical Dream
The Decline and Fall of the Otto Wagner Hospital, Vienna.

Fat Can Be Used To Burn Off Weight After New Patent Unveiled
It is being hailed as a sensation after scientists at an Austrian university patented a method that transforms fat storing cells into mini factories capable of actually destroying fat by burning it off.

Three Family Members Dead In Well Tragedy
A mother has lost her husband, her pregnant daughter and her son-in-law after a tragic accident where one of them fell into a well and the other two died while trying to carry out a failed rescue.

Brit Soldier Rescued After Climbing Mountain In T Shirt
A British soldier who tackled the frozen Austrian Alps wearing just shorts and a T-shirt has been rapped by officials after he had to be rescued from the snowy peak.

Mum And Daughter Struck By Lightning In Pool
A mother and her daughter were hospitalised after they were struck by lightning – in a swimming pool.

Police Nab Porn Star Who Filmed In Local Church
A woman accused of making a porn movie in a local church has been caught after an informant tipped off police that he recognised her by her breasts after an appeal for information.

Young Hip Hop Dancer Gets 18 Years For Drug Smuggling
A blonde hip hop dancer and charity worker promised an international career after she was spotted by a talent scout has been jailed for 18 years in Indonesia after her work offer turned out to have been part of an elaborate drugs con.

 


Mala Vrata

The most popular stories –
last 7 days



Don't moan alone, the Ombudsman Investigates.

Why suffer in silence. Let off steam by letting our readers share your troubles. File your complaints about anything and everything here.

Our ombudsman David Rogers will try and help solve some of the problems from lazy civil servants through to incompetent companies – and at the very least the worst transgressors will end up in our weekly special report.


Austrian Zimmers