Saturday, 23. August 2014
04. 01. 13. - 15:00
The "great recession" is dead and the "great reflation" is about to begin, writes Clem Chambers, Amazon best-selling author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners and CEO of world leading investment site, www.advfn.com.
Visit www.clemchambers.com. Follow: @ClemChambers
In January, I wrote an article declaring the euro crisis dead. Austrian readers might now be thinking I was way too early on that one.
In my defence, whilst there were wobbles in Italy and Spain in 2012, the euro didn’t disintegrate. It doesn't look likely to disintegrate anymore. So the storm didn’t actually hit the shore. In fact, if you acknowledge that the "euro crisis" is not actually the same thing as the "euro problem" - that the whole situation has gone from acute to chronic, (or short-term to long-term) - then the euro crisis was dead after all. And it still is.
For this coming year then, my speculation is, "the great depression is dead".
Yes, we may fall off fiscal cliffs, and yes we will have currency crises. Yes, interest rate moves and QEs will shake and stir, but nonetheless, like the Mayan calendar, the bear market started by the credit crunch has run its course. The world will go on.
Go on, and go up!
From my point of view, this is all an investor needs to know. Any idiot can make a profit investing in a bull market. And we are in the overture of a bull market. It could run and run the whole of this decade.
Not many people in 2000 believed we were in for a 12 year bear market, so it is not a wholly ridiculous prediction to make. Imagine a huge and long bull run. Double or triple the indices. Can you hold that idea in your mind without thinking "yeah, right"?
Why and how a huge equities rally is possible?
The 'why' of it can be looked at from many angles. You could suggest a 12 year bear market has to come to an end sometime, for instance. However, I think it is all about the huge reflation of the US and Europe which has at last begun to produce the desired recovery. Couple this with China’s recovery, which has kicked off now it has worked through its soft/hard landing to avoid a boom and crash in property, similar to the one that felled the West. Then add to that the news that Japan is going for a dash for growth. You have an alignment of giant bullish factors.
An inflationary Japan will set a series of inflationary dominos falling and there will be growth. Not just old school growth but a sudden explosion of it.
Things could go wrong and we could get massive inflation, yet things could go right and we could get huge growth with mild, technology-dampened inflation and global growth.
The world’s demographics can easily deliver a huge decade-long boom. Politicians could, of course, utterly screw it all up and deliver the world into an inflationary asset bubble mirror image of that.
In any event there's going to be a step-change in activity from defensive, deflationary economics to frothy, reflationary activity.
The beginning of the next financial era is near. I reckon it will be next year. This means it will more likely occur in 2014, as I’m often early to the party.
The active investor couldn’t ask for more. 'The trend is your friend especially if you can catch it early. What's more, this trend is up.
The way to go, is to ride the trend. Take on risk. Short money and go long on hard assets.
What could be easier?
Let the good times roll.
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